1. Field of the Invention
The invention relates to a simulation system and method, more particularly to a simulation system and method for establishing reservoir operational rule curves.
2. Description of the Related Art
For improving the water resources management, it is highly pursued to promote utilization of reservoir storage to lower the risk of water shortage.
In the prior art, reservoir operational rule curves are established either through a simulation method or a screening method. The underlying concept behind developing reservoir operational rule curves in the simulation method is that, under a preset project demand, reservoir storage level fluctuations as well as water shortage and overflow conditions for a plurality of time units are simulated so that, during actual supply of water, the amount of supplied water can be reduced at appropriate times whenever the reservoir storage level has dropped below a certain threshold. However, the process of developing operational rule curves in the simulation method is time consuming and labor intensive, and requires the skills of expert engineers who have abundant professional experience and sophisticated knowledge on the local hydrological background.
On the other hand, in the screening method, optimum storage trajectories are inferred from operational objective associated with an established optimum reservoir storage utilization model based on various data, such as water inflow amount, water demand amount, etc. Upon acquiring the optimum storage trajectories, reservoir storages with the same probabilities for each time unit are connected and, using various search methods and simulation models, simulation results of storage trajectories having different probabilities are compared to find the optimum reservoir operational rule curves. This method, however, takes up too much time and is only able to find a localized best solution.
Therefore, how to establish a simulation system capable of quickly and effectively establishing reservoir operational rule curves that are best suited to promote reservoir operational quality is a task currently being pursued by the water resource management sector.